Stochastic Systems [ Applied Mathematics ]
AA 2018/2019

The course is diveded into the following three parts

1) Theory of stochastic systems
2) Introduction to time-series analysis
3) Computer exercises ( mainly based on the theory of Markov Chains, in discrete as well in continuous time )

Part (2) will be mainly performed in laboratory mode, using computer equipped classrooms, with the possibility, for each student to use a computer in order to implement , real time, the models proposed during the lesson. This activity will be supported by a tutor for a total amount of 24 (frontal) hours.

Part (3) will be taught by Prof. Caliari in a computer equipped laboratory.

The exam will be subdivided into the following three parts

* a written exam concerning point (1)
* a project presented in agreement with the programme developed with prof. Marco Caliari (point 3)
* exercises and a project concerning point (2)

The programme concerning the written exam, with respect to point (1), is the one reported in the Program section.
The project to be presented with prof. Caliari has to be decided with him.
The project to be presented with respect to point (2), will be chosen, by each student, within the the following list

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@Projects
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@Warning: Since the list of projects may vary during the year, Students are warmly invited to directly contact prof. Di @Persio in order to choose the right project to develop, within the list of arguments that will be actually developed @during laboratory hours
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1-Compare the following methods of estimate and/or elimination of time series trends

*First order differences study
*Smoothing with moving average filter
*Fourier transform
*Exponential Smoothing
*Polynomial Data fitting

2- Describe and provide a numerical implementation of the one-step predictor for the following models

FIR(4)
ARX(3,1)
OE(3,1)
ARMA(2,3)
ARMAX(2,1,2)
Box-Jenkins(nb,nc,nd,nf)

3- Compare the Prediction Error Minimization (PEM) and the Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach for the identification of the model parameters (it requires a personal effort in the homes ML)

4- Provide a concrete implementation for the k-fold cross-validation, e.g. using Matlab/Octave, following the example-test that has been given during the lessons

5-Detailed explanation of (at least) one of the following test
*Shapiro-Wilk
*Kolmogorov-Smirnov
*Lilliefors

Practical implementation of the project chosen by the student can be realized exploiting one of the following software frameworks : R, Python, Matlab, Gnu Octave, Excel

The final grade, expressed in thirtieths, will result from the following formula
Rating = (5/6) * T + (1/6) * E + P
where
T is the mark out of 30 on the part of Theory (written exam with prof. Di Persio)
It is the mark out of 30 on the part of Exercises (oral exam with prof. Caliari)
P is a score within the range [0,2]

It is important to emphasize how the objectives of the exam are also centered on assessing the individual student's ability to:

° carry out technical tasks defined in the model-mathematical settings;
° extract qualitative information from quantitative data with particular reference to the analysis of historical series, the study and the realization of predictive models, the development of automatic processes in the analysis of random phenomena;
° use computer/software tools such as R, Matlab, Gnu Octave, etc. , to realize models analyzed in the course and / or implemented in laboratory hours.