Studying at the University of Verona
Here you can find information on the organisational aspects of the Programme, lecture timetables, learning activities and useful contact details for your time at the University, from enrolment to graduation.
Study Plan
This information is intended exclusively for students already enrolled in this course.If you are a new student interested in enrolling, you can find information about the course of study on the course page:
Laurea in Matematica applicata - Enrollment from 2025/2026The Study Plan includes all modules, teaching and learning activities that each student will need to undertake during their time at the University.
Please select your Study Plan based on your enrollment year.
1° Year
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2° Year activated in the A.Y. 2012/2013
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3° Year activated in the A.Y. 2013/2014
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Uno da 12 cfu o due da 6 cfu tra i seguenti tre insegnamenti
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Modules | Credits | TAF | SSD |
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Modules | Credits | TAF | SSD |
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Uno da 12 cfu o due da 6 cfu tra i seguenti tre insegnamenti
Modules | Credits | TAF | SSD |
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Legend | Type of training activity (TTA)
TAF (Type of Educational Activity) All courses and activities are classified into different types of educational activities, indicated by a letter.
Stochastic systems (2013/2014)
Teaching code
4S00254
Credits
6
Language
Italian
Scientific Disciplinary Sector (SSD)
MAT/06 - PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
The teaching is organized as follows:
Catene di Markov in tempo discreto
Analisi di serie temporali
Esercitazioni
Learning outcomes
Module 1 ( Discrete time Markov Chains )
Basics of the theory of discrete time Markov chain with finite or countable state space and examples of application.
Module 2 (Practice session of Stochastic systems)
Approximation and computation of invariant probabilities, Metropolis algorithm, simulation of queues and renewal processes with the use of Matlab.
Module 3 Introduction to Time Series analysis: the lessons aims to provide to the student a general framework to analyze time series as the outcome of a discrete time model fed by a white noise and an exogenous input. The lesson are completed by the use of a dedicated software in order to apply the theoretical aspects.
Program
Module 1
Markov chains with finite space state:
Definitions, transition matrix, transition probability in n steps, Chapman -Kolmogorov equation, finite joint densities, Canonocal space and Kolmogorov theorem (without proof).
State classification, invariant probabilities, Markov-Kakutani theorem, example of gambler's ruin, regular chains, criterion, limit probabilities and Markov theorem, reversible chains, Metropolis algorithm and Simulated annealing, numerical generation of a discrete random variable and algorithm for generation an omogeneus Markov chains with finite state space.
Markov chains with countable space state:
Equivalent definitions of transient and recurrent state, positive recurrence, periodicity, solidarity property, canonical decomposition of the state space, invariant measures, existence theorem, example of the unlimited random walk. Ergodicity and limit theorems.
Elements of Martingales associated to discrete time Markov chains:
Natural filtration, stopping times, conditional expectation given a random variable, strong Markov property, martingales. Optional stopping Theorem, example of gambler's ruin.
Module 2 Approximation and computation of invariant probabilities, Metropolis algorithm, simulation of queues with the use of Matlab.
Module 3 Elements of time series analysis :
Main scope of time series analysis: modelling, prediction and simulation.
Identification problem main components: a priori Knowledge, experiment design, goodness criteria, model, filtering and validation.
Model: main variables and correspondent schema. (AR, ARX, ARMA, output-error).
Goodness Criteria: least square, Maximum Likelihood, Maximum a posteriori.
Filtering: Linear parameter model, frequency filtering.
Matlab : main purpose and examples.
Bibliography
Activity | Author | Title | Publishing house | Year | ISBN | Notes |
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Analisi di serie temporali | LJung | System Identification, Theory for the User (Edizione 2) | Prentice Hall PTR | 1999 |
Examination Methods
Module 1 Oral exam
Module 2 Discussion of the solution of given homeworks.
Module 3 Written exam
Teaching materials e documents
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Elaborato 1 - appello del 5 febbraio (it, 54 KB, 1/30/14)
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Elaborato 2 - testo e linee guida per l'appello del 19 febbraio (it, 75 KB, 2/13/14)
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Elaborato 3 - testo e linee guida per l'appello del 25 luglio (it, 701 KB, 6/18/14)
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Errata Corrige I - Esercitazione IV (it, 60 KB, 2/17/14)
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Esercitazione 1 del 20-11: predizione e simulazione (it, 1315 KB, 12/17/13)
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Esercitazione 2 del 27-11: identificazione su errore di predizione (it, 649 KB, 12/17/13)
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Esercitazione 3 del 04-12: Identificazione ML e MAP (it, 1292 KB, 12/17/13)
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Esercitazione 4 del 11-12: Validazione Modelli (it, 628 KB, 2/17/14)
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Esercitazione 5 del 18-12: Simulazione d'esame (it, 661 KB, 12/17/13)